Guide
Forecasting without a spreadsheet degree.
Your own history for the same weekday, adjusted for the obvious. That is most of it.
In short
Forecast from your own sales for the same weekday over the previous several weeks, adjusted for the same week last year, then for known factors: weather, local events, holidays and school terms. This is accurate enough to set prep and rota, which is what a forecast is for.
Updated 28 August 2026
Same weekday, several weeks back
Restaurant trade is weekly-seasonal, so the best predictor of next Friday is recent Fridays. Take a rolling average of the last four to six of the same weekday. This alone gets you most of the way and takes minutes.
Then adjust for the things that genuinely move it
Four factors move restaurant trade more than anything else, and all four are knowable in advance except one.
- Weather, which moves delivery and dine-in in opposite directions
- Local events, matches and concerts
- Bank holidays and school terms
- Paydays, particularly at the end of the month
Forecast to a range, not a number
A single number is false precision and it makes the forecast feel wrong every time it misses. A range lets you prep for the middle and staff for the top of it, which is the actual decision. Precision is not what makes a forecast useful, direction and magnitude are.
Use it for prep and rota, which is the point
A forecast that does not change a decision is an entertainment. The two decisions it should drive are how much to prep and who to roster. Both are made days ahead, both cost real money when wrong, and both are improved by a rough forecast over a guess.
The honest limitation
Weather forecasts change, events get cancelled, and a viral post can produce a night nothing predicted. Forecasting reduces error, it does not eliminate it. Keep a flex plan for the days it is badly wrong rather than trying to build a model that never is.
Questions, answered straight.
Not covered here? Just ask us.
How far ahead should I forecast?
Two weeks for rota, a few days for prep. Beyond a month the error grows faster than the usefulness.
Do I need software?
No. A spreadsheet of the last six weeks by weekday gets you most of the value. Software helps once you have several sites.
How do I forecast a new restaurant?
You cannot, properly. Use conservative estimates, staff flexibly, and replace guesses with your own data as fast as it accumulates.
Should I forecast by hour?
Once you have the day right, yes, and it is where the rota savings are. Most restaurants find their rush is narrower than they assumed.
See it run your restaurant.
Twenty minutes on your menu and your numbers. We'll show you what actually changes in the first month and exactly what it costs. If it's not right for your restaurant, we'll tell you that instead.
- Live in days, not months
- We build your menu and train your staff
- No contract, and thirty days to change your mind
Rather just ring us? +353 87 438 8032
Tell us about your restaurant
We reply the same day, usually inside a couple of hours.